Future of Work (2030)
The future of work is being reshaped by powerful global forces, including rapid technological advancement, artificial intelligence, demographic change, climate change, and the lasting impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. These shifts are transforming how organisations operate, the skills people need, and the nature of employment itself. Drawing on insights from leading academics and industry experts, this report explores the key trends, challenges, and opportunities that will define the workplace of 2030, helping business leaders and policymakers prepare for a more resilient, inclusive, and future-ready world of work.
“65 % of children will work in areas that don’t yet exist”
“80 M jobs lost due to climate change by 2030”
The Challenge
Shifts such as technological progress, globalisation, an increasingly ageing population and climate change are revolutionising how and where we work. For some, this offers unparalleled opportunity, bringing stability, opportunity and a sense of purpose where previously there was none. For others it is unsettling as new business models and external challenges disrupt established industries and profoundly affect the economy and society as a whole. On top of this, COVID-19 has added an extraordinary level of uncertainty around what the new “normal” could be. Such is the speed of change that it is difficult for business leaders or policy makers, let alone workers themselves, to plan effectively for the future. Multiple questions arise. Globally, many are already experiencing a movement away from manufacturing towards services, but what will be the long-term effect of AI and intelligent machines? How will more global warming impact our increasingly interconnected economies? What skills will be needed to survive and prosper? How can we ensure a transition agenda that is equitable and works for all? How can we safeguard our lives and livelihoods against future pandemics? Indeed, what are the key challenges for the future of work? These formed the basis of discussion at a recent series of interviews with senior academics at the University of Bristol School of Management, the major points of which are outlined below. The aim is to provide an initial perspective on the future of the workplace which will be further explored in a series of online discussions, interviews and workshops across Europe over six months from September 2020.
The Pace of Change
That work should change is no surprise – indeed the economist David Ricardo was worrying about the impact of “the machinery question” as long ago as 1821. However, the current pace of change is certainly new. The speed of scale being achieved by recent tech unicorns is, for instance, without parallel. There are many perspectives on how this will impact the future of work. Some, pointing to the pace at which robots are being adopted, suggest that over the next decade artificial intelligence, advanced robotics and cognitive automation, the Internet of Things (IoT) and other technologies such as synthetic biology, 3D and 4D printing, will increasingly take on tasks that were once performed by people and that a consequence of this will mean there may not be enough well paid work for everyone to do. [1] An alternative view is that the impact of new technology on jobs is overstated, and that since the global financial crash any gains in productivity have been achieved largely as a result of “intensified or flexibilised labour regimes rather than technical investment.” In addition they suggest the pressure to provide immediate returns to shareholders could continue to act as a disincentive for corporates to make the necessary investment in new technologies, particularly when labour costs are low. [2] That said, one consequence of COVID19 may be that companies accelerate the move towards automation as they strive to protect their operations from future pandemics. A recent EY report surveyed nearly 3,0000 executives and found that 40% are planning to increase spending on autonomous technologies as a result of the crisis. [3]